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Global Equity

traditional market conditioning approach

Traditional Market Conditioning: Why We Need to Break Away from It and How

By | Behavioral Finance, Global Equity | No Comments

It is important to remember that all investments are subject to a certain amount of risk. ‘Risk” can simply be defined as the probability of losing whole or part of the sum invested. This probability must be considered before investing. Various tools may be employed to identify investment-worthy stocks such as fundamental analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, technical and quantitative analysis. Fund managers may combine two or more systems to determine the strength of investment.

By and large, traditional investment strategies are based on a fixed percentage mix of stocks, bonds, and cash for varying risk tolerances. It is often the money manager’s job to select the best investment options based on various theories that can be based on the long-term average performance of investment assets. For example, a moderate risk investor is likely to keep fully invested in 60 percent stock and 40 percent bond allocation without taking into consideration the risk. Institutions and fund managers may follow a relative investment approach, which in our opinion, has fundamental flaws as it focuses on short-term horizons and fails to incorporate emerging trends.

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Evidence based investing for S&P 500 companies

Rational Market or Irrational Exuberance?

By | Behavioral Finance, Global Equity | No Comments

Since June 2015, we have been voicing our concern on market valuations on mid and small cap space. Irrespective of events like Brexit, demonetization or outcome of US elections, market momentum in mid and small cap space has been undeterred.

Since May 2014 with the outcome of Indian elections and NDA government coming in majority, we believe market has rallied on a complete hope based story where the gap between valuations and fundamentals has widened significantly. Focus has shifted from strong conventional businesses to emerging and turnaround stories where we believe the premiums paid are very high.

It is usually in a market like this when behavioural biases overpower an investor’s cognitive decision making ability where greed takes a precedence to rational thinking.

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Mis-defining Investment Quality

(Mis)Defining Quality: Counting When It Cannot be Counted

By | Behavioral Finance, Global Equity, Investment Insights | No Comments

This article originally appeared on Advisor Perspectives.

 “Ben felt that what I do now makes sense for my situation. It still has its founding in Graham, but it does have more of a qualitative dimension to it because, for one thing, we manage such large sums of money that you can’t go around and find these relatively small value-price discrepancies anymore. Instead, we have to place larger bets, and that involves looking at more criteria, not all of them quantitative. Ben would say that what I do now makes sense, but he would say that it’s much harder for most people to do.” – Warren Buffett 1 responding on apparent divergence from Graham, emphasis ours.

 “The number one idea is to view a stock as an ownership of the business and to judge the staying quality of the business in terms of its competitive advantage. Look for more value in terms of discounted future cash-flow than you are paying for. Move only when you have an advantage.” –Charlie Munger

“Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” – William Bruce Cameron 2

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Notes:

  1. Joe Carlen, The Einstein of Money: The Life and Timeless Financial Wisdom of Benjamin Graham, 244.
  2. The quote is frequently attributed to Albert Einstein. However, it is likely an incorrect attribution. Read more here.
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Cash Flows Don’t Lie (Or Do They?): Part II

By | Global Equity, Investment Insights | No Comments

While cash flows have been used as a guide to indicate the health of a company, just looking at cash flows is not enough. Multi-Act experts conduct an analysis of 3 companies,in the auto parts retailing industry, a highly favoured segment amongst investors and analysts. You’ll see why investing in auto part retailers may not be wise under certain circumstances. As we analyze 3 companies in the following areas, discover fundamental traits that should make investors skeptical:

  • Profitability: Margin Cycle
  • Cash Flow Generation: Working Capital
  • Cash Flow Utilization: Capital Allocation

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Chinese E-Commerce Co: Real Growth or just Creative Accounting?

By | Company Insights, Corporate Governance, Global Equity | No Comments

Ever made an investment decision based on market hype? Multi-Act experts review a Chinese e-commerce company headed by a celebrated personality that appears to be outdoing its competitors. While the company seems to be a victor; a careful quality of earnings analysis by our team reveals some creative accounting practices that investors should not ignore. Analysis includes the company’s:

  • Adjusted Non GAAP EBITDA and Net Income
  • Capital Allocation
  • Low Tax Rate Sustainability
  • USD Denominated Debt

Questions arise about the said company’s profit margins, cash-flows and valuation. Read how this can impact investor decisions.

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Economies of Scale: An Analytical Framework for Assessment of A Firm’s Competitive Advantage

By | Global Equity, Investment Insights | No Comments

This article originally appeared on Advisor Perspectives.

“The moat in a business like our auto insurance business at GEICO is low cost. I mean people have to buy auto insurance, so everybody’s going to have one auto insurance policy per car basically, or per driver. And…I can’t sell them twenty…but they have to buy one. Read More

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Growth Vs Value Cycle

By | Global Equity | No Comments

Investment decisions need to be based on rational analysis and void of behavioral bias. However, markets often act without clinical analysis and prefer different type of assets in different phases. One such example is emerging across the growth stocks and value stocks, where the favor or disfavor for a particular class changes over the course of a market cycle. Read More

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